Greed is Coming Back

Markets have rebounded amidst hopes of falling inflation and easing Chinese Covid restrictions. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 69, which is close to the upper bound of the “Greed” rating. “Extreme Greed” is at 75 -100. This is indicative of excessive exuberance and an increased probability of a correction.

Zerohedge also has a good article discussing the likelihood of a Santa rally. It warns that fundamentals are not conducive for such a rally, although it does not definitively conclude that one cannot happen.

During times like these, it is probably not wise to go all-in. The rally is mostly driven by falling inflation expectations. Macro economic indicators have not been positive, and companies may underperform expectations in the upcoming quarters.

Please do your research diligently on both macro and micro fronts. Remember that no one knows everything and is right all the time. Aim to be your own trading/investing guru. Take care and good luck!

Author: novaliser

I have been trading since 2012, and retired from the corporate world in Dec 2021 after accumulating enough profits to feel comfortable living without a stable monthly income.

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