Lucky Win Streak

I realized that I had a spell where I did not have any losing trades, and decided to check back my previous trading updates to find out more. I’ve tabulated the consecutive winning trades in the table below.

Trading UpdateNo of Trades
1https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trades-19-apr-to-27-apr/7
2https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trade-28-apr-2022/3
3https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trades-29-april-4-may-2022/5
4https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trades-5-may-2022/1
5https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trades-5-may-2022-part-2/6
6https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trade-6-may-2022/1
7https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trade-6-may-2022-part-2/1
8https://tradethebubble.com/latest-trade-9-may-2022/1
Total25
Table of consecutive winning trades

Statistics of Winning Run

Apparently, I had 25 consecutive winning trades made from 19 April to 9 May. It is quite rare for me to have such a long winning streak. I trade CFDs on stocks and indices, so in theory the win/loss ratio is roughly 50/50. Accounting for trading charges and price spreads, that may be adjusted to perhaps 49/51. I only started recording my trades this year, so I may have had similar runs in previous years, but I do not know for sure.

Analysis and Reflection

Looking back at these 25 winning trades, I am certain that I have been lucky for some of them. Markets are affected by many forces which are impossible to predict. Every trade is made based on probability, there is no such thing as absolute certainty in any trade. It may have been beneficial that I have been restricting my trades to only those with higher-probability setups, but even such a strategy cannot guarantee long win streaks. It may also have helped that markets have been going down in general lately, which favors my trading style of mostly shorting stocks. Nevertheless, luck definitely has played a big part in this win streak.

Conclusion

I am not regarding this win streak as a big deal, as it is just an interesting statistical anomaly. It does not prove that I am a fantastic trader, merely that I have been lucky. I am sure many others have had much longer and more impressive win streaks. To be a successful trader, win streaks are not necessary. What is more important is to have a good balance of win/loss ratio and average profit/average loss ratio. Good luck in your trading!

Author: novaliser

I have been trading since 2012, and retired from the corporate world in Dec 2021 after accumulating enough profits to feel comfortable living without a stable monthly income.

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