Markets Brush Off Ukraine Invasion

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Brushing off the invasion of Ukraine

After initial plunges due to the Ukraine invasion, most markets regained composure. S&P ended 1.5% higher, making a spectacular intraday recovery. Asian markets rebounded somewhat in the morning and early afternoon sessions.

Is the invasion really a totally benign event not affecting the global economy at all? Definitely not. There are several good write-ups on it, such as this article from Financial Times and this from The Economic Times. The global economy would take perhaps a 0.2-0.3% GDP hit over the next few years, but risks have increased, especially with the oil/inflation aspect. The situation is definitely worse due to the invasion, but there is still considerable uncertainty regarding how much worse.

More certainty would arrive as the situation develops further within the next few days, weeks or months. If you are confident of the long-term prospects of your stock, it might be a good buying opportunity. Meanwhile, this is a good chance to practice managing greed and fear. Fear was abundant yesterday, but greed has been in play for much of today. Most of the time, giving in to extreme fear or greed will lead to unprofitable outcomes.

Author: novaliser

I have been trading since 2012, and retired from the corporate world in Dec 2021 after accumulating enough profits to feel comfortable living without a stable monthly income.

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