State of the Markets

Markets have dropped a lot in recent days. S&P 500 settled at 3930 yesterday (12 May), down a whopping 700 points from 29 March (4631) and more than 800 points from its all-time high of 4818. It is very close to entering a bear market (20% drop from the peak).

Is it time for a decent bounce? Probably, but news flow has been poor, very little fundamental change has occurred. This means that if there are no major news flow surprises, any bounce may be relatively small and short-lived. In such cases, agility is required to move in and out quickly.

If any positive headlines appear, there should be a stronger bounce. It is also entirely possible for the markets to just slowly drift downwards or sideways. It is a tricky situation to trade indices or stocks with high correlation to the general markets. None of the possible scenarios have an significantly stronger probability of occurring than the others. Hence there is no high-conviction outcome to bet on.

If you trade in any niche markets/stocks which are relatively disconnected from the general markets, this should not affect you so much. If you still would like to trade, please monitor news flow closely and get out quickly if any headlines pop out which are negative for your trade(s).

Author: novaliser

I have been trading since 2012, and retired from the corporate world in Dec 2021 after accumulating enough profits to feel comfortable living without a stable monthly income.

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