Since my last post one week ago, markets have dropped somewhat. S&P is now at 3825, down from 3911.
The corrective bounce ran out of steam, and the major equity markets dropped a few percent. There was a rebound in US yesterday, and S&P went up about 1%. However, I doubt the uptick can be sustained, as there has been a constant stream of bad economic news flow applying downward pressure on sentiment.
Earnings season in the US is starting in the 2nd week of July. This is another potential source of downward pressure on equities. There is a significant risk that earnings expectations have not come down enough. If earnings disappointment + negative economic news flow hit the markets together, it would be difficult to avoid another down leg.
Commodities are still falling. Below is the chart for copper.
There has been no relief at all for commodities, even with China’s re-opening impulse. The pessimism from the global downturn seems to be overwhelming everything else.
Is there still room for further falls? Let’s take a look at a longer timeframe for copper.
Copper is still above pre-COVID levels. To me, it feels like there is still room for further falls. Of course, things rarely move in a straight line.
I am back to favoring shorting commodities, as negative economic news flow has been relentless. Except for China PMIs which have been ok, but their economic stimulus has been underwhelming so far. However, prices have dropped a lot, so a lot of agility is needed to avoid getting caught in any violent rebound.
As for the long side, I still like bonds. Bond yields have dropped somewhat, with 10-year Treasury yields dropping to multi-month lows. Recession fears are the culprit. Just be careful and do not bet huge on junk bonds for their high yields, as recession will still hit low-quality bonds badly.
Take care and good luck!