Wall street rebounded massively yesterday, with Dow Jones up more than 800 pts and S&P up about 3%.
This has been a good week for the markets. Economic news has actually been bad overall, but there is some hope that inflation is peaking. It is likely that markets rallied due to lowered expectations of rate hikes.
Markets are shifting their focus rather rapidly. Just recently, it was global slowdown fears. This week, it is peaking inflation hope. Next week, would there be a new focus? Perhaps. Earnings slowdown is a possible candidate. Or maybe slowdown fears will triumph again. Market dynamics are changing more quickly these days, making trading more challenging.
Commodities have continued to fall despite verbal support for stronger Chinese stimulus. A lot has to with weakening economic data. Copper price is at 16-month lows.
Prices have literally fallen off a cliff after being in a trading range for some time It is possible for prices to continue falling, but the probability of at least a short-term bounce has increased. There are still folks believing in the power of future China stimulus.
In my previous update, my preferred short was commodities and long was bonds. Commodities have fallen a lot since, so I would not short it due to increased probability of a bounce. Bond prices have increased slightly, but I am retaining it as my preferred long. It seems likely that the economic slowdown will cap the increase in bond yields going forward.
One thought on “Thoughts on the Markets (25 Jun 22)”